Monday, February 25, 2008


I've decided Jason Grey is an idiot. Keep in mind while reading this that these three articles of his are the only things of his I've read. So my opinion may not be very informed, but that hasn't ever stopped me from having one before. I was reading his "overrated" "underrated" and value by position articles/analysis. First of all, he uses the ESPN rankings as the benchmark. That's fine, but come on, they're just rankings, and there are so much better out there. In fact, I would guarantee that when preparing for Tout Wars, Jason Grey is not doing his ADP analysis with the ESPN rankings. Come on. But anyway, that issue brings me to second of all, which is that he refers to the rankings as "projections." Now, I understand that they are technically projected ranks for the season, not projected stats, and I know he knows that. But when you're averaging 12 different people's seperate and quite subjective projected rankings, that's not projecting anything. If two people differ greatly on their projection of Josh Fields (Berry thinks he takes the job, kicks ass, so he ranked him way higher, others didn't) that doesn't mean at all that he's going to be in the middle, he's going to be one or the other, most likely.

But what really made me realize he was an idiot, was that his "conclusion" for underrated and overrated players in drafts is IDENTICAL. Well, seemingly at least. I think he's just accidentally saying the wrong thing, because he's a bad writer. He's saying that for undervalued guys, if you want to draft them at the projected value or even a round before, you don't need to because they'll likely slip a couple more rounds, so it's safe to wait. Obviously, but good call Jason, congratulations. Then, for the overvalued guys, he says like THE EXACT SAME THING. Here are a couple excerpts:

"For example, let's say you are absolutely sure Grady Sizemore is going to have a monster season; you're certain he's going to return the value of a first-round pick. He's still available when it comes to you at pick No. 9 in the first round of a 12-team draft … take Sizemore, right? Not so fast. It's a worthy temptation, but using data from the many mock drafts I used to determine the current ADP, Sizemore likely will still be there when it comes time for your second-round pick. You can maximize the overall return of your first two picks by selecting someone else in the first round and still grabbing Sizemore a round later."

This isn't so bad, just an odd way of explaining his point. He's explaining the phenomenon of players becoming overrated, or why his analysis even exists, not really giving you a strategy. It kind of belongs more in the "undervalued," if you're thinking that Grady's potential monster season is his projection, but he's slipping to the second round. Who cares, just sort of weird. But this is the last paragraph:

"There are four names on this list to spotlight: Scott Kazmir, Felix Hernandez, Clay Buchholz and Ubaldo Jimenez. I'm not arguing against selecting them, but the numbers suggest you can be a touch more patient before picking 'em. They'll still be there at least a round or two later than you probably think. Sometimes it's tough to practice patience for a guy you really want, but the overall value you will take from your entire draft will make holding off worth it."

"numbers suggest you can be a touch more patient..."??? "They'll still be there at least a round or two later..."??? No, doucheface, you just wrote an article explaining that if you want these guys you CAN'T be patient. Remember? It was THIS article. I'm sure he's trying to say "numbers suggest you SHOULD be a touch more patient, but other morons in your draft won't be, so you're not getting Felix unless you are willing to overpay, which is a bad idea. Wait, and take a guy that is a better value." But he's not saying that. Of course, none of it matters, since his whole analysis is based on projections that aren't projections at all. You know, it's one thing when ESPN wastes howrey's time because I'm reading it at work, but when it's wasting MY TIME too???? I just don't even know what to say to that.

Anyway, no one had posted for a while, and I hate the NBA, so I'm talkin' fantasy baseball jerks. Try and stop me!

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