Let me preface this by saying, as others have before, that there is an awesome post directly below this, so don't miss Wilson's Apocalypse Album candidates. Nicely done Wilson.
Anyway. Be prepared, this is long. But that won't stop me from giving it a long introduction. Today, for work, I was trying to contact Ebay about their Marketplace Research tools. It's really, really hard. First, they want you to email them about your problem. They give you, like, 8 subject options, but none of them have to do with what I'm looking for, and there is no "other" or "miscellaneous" or anything. And you can't proceed without selecting one, then a subtopic, and so on. So then I called 3 different customer service numbers (that I had to find by googling, I couldn't find them on their website). All of them were just labyrinthine recordings, that initially try to redirect you to the applicable page on their website, and when you continue on, finally just disconnect you. Awesome. Thanks Ebay, that was helpful. So I figure I can surely speak to someone at investor relations. Sure enough, I'm having a nice conversation with Ellen, but she tells me she can't transfer me to anyone at Ebay. Only upon speaking with her supervisor do I find out that they're not even a part of Ebay, they're a contracted investor mail center. Strike 3. But am I out? Not hardly!!! For then I finally discover on their website the difficult to find Live Chat! which they are clearly excited about, what with the exclamation mark and all. So, below is the transcript, unabridged, of my Live Chat! session with Selina L., who, by the way, was an awesome sport. As a side note, I feel like Live Chat! should be pronounced in the same hushed but excited tone as "Jazz Hands!" That's just me. Here we go (sorry this is long):
You are successfully connected to eBay Live Help. Please hold for the next available Live Help Agent.
4:54:34 PM System
Selina L. has joined this session!
4:54:34 PM System
Connected with Selina L.
4:54:39 PM Selina L.
Hello, thank you for waiting and welcome to eBay Live Help! My name is Selina. If you are a registered member, may I please start by having you confirm your User ID and first name?
4:54:59 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
I'm not a registered member. My name is Jay.
4:55:09 PM Selina L.
Hi Jay ! How may I assist you today?
4:55:28 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Well, I'm trying to find some information on the Marketplace Research tool.
4:56:17 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
I had some pretty general questions, but I spent the last hour or so trying to find a way to contact someone by phone.
4:56:26 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
I found out that was quite impossible.
4:56:48 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Could you answer some questions re Marketplace Research?
4:57:40 PM Selina L.
Here in Live Help, we can only effectively address general support-type questions. To assist you better you could write to them at marketing@ebay.com
4:58:10 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Is there really no possible way to speak with someone at ebay over the phone?
4:58:30 PM Selina L.
As of now eBay offers support by email and chat
4:58:39 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
That's amazing.
4:59:05 PM Selina L.
Once you've subscribed to the Marketplace Research program, you can access it through My eBay by following these steps: 1. Click "My eBay" at the top of most eBay pages. You may need to sign in. 2. Click the "Marketplace Research" link under the "My Subscriptions" heading on the left side of the page. (Don't confuse this with the "Subscriptions" link under "My Account.")
4:59:45 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
My whole point in trying to speak with someone is to ask questions about the tool before purchasing it.
5:00:55 PM Selina L.
For more information about Marketplace Research follow this link: http://pages.ebay.com/marketplace_research/
5:01:24 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
That isn't more information, that is the information I already have. I need more information than is provided. I have questions about it.
5:03:14 PM Selina L.
You can get when you click on email us link at email us at mpr@ebay.com.
5:03:27 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
There must be an office, where people work on/with the Marketplace Research tool. They must have phones. I don't need a toll free number, it could be a long distance number, that is not a problem.
5:03:53 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
No, I've tried that, but the subjects are very specific, and not about what I'm looking for.
5:04:45 PM Selina L.
I am sorry, I have tried to provide all the information that was available at my end.
5:05:46 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
If I send an email to mpr@ebay.com, what department is that? Can I do it directly from my email account, or do I need to do it from the website?
5:06:12 PM Selina L.
You can do it from your email address
5:06:19 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
You also mentioned marketing@ebay.com, would that be more appropriate?
5:07:03 PM Selina L.
mpr is for market place research. You can also send it to marketing @ ebay.com
5:07:45 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Ahh, thanks. It is pretty unbelievable that there is no customer service phone line, don't you think?
5:08:05 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
How long will a response take do you think, from mpr@ebay.com?
5:08:58 PM Selina L.
It should not take long as it is a separate section.
5:09:38 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Do you get a lot of frustrated people trying to contact ebay by phone?
5:09:44 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Or am I the only one?
5:10:27 PM Selina L.
eBay may work on it as chat is introduced just one year ago.
5:10:54 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Did they have phones before the chat?
5:11:15 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Smoke signals? Morse code?
5:11:28 PM Selina L.
Earlier we only had emails.
5:11:40 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Seriously???
5:11:57 PM Selina L.
Yes
5:12:11 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
You don't even have a phone, just a computer monitor at your desk?
5:12:33 PM Selina L.
Yes, that's right.
5:13:05 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
What happens when two departments need to contact each other?
5:13:11 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Chat as well?
5:13:22 PM Selina L.
We interact through emails
5:13:32 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
That must be a quiet office.
5:13:51 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Do you ever have a cricket in the building, and it just drives you nuts?
5:14:02 PM Selina L.
Yes, it's very quiet. We do listen to music some times.
5:14:40 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Can you speak aloud?
5:14:58 PM Selina L.
Yes
5:15:31 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Are you allowed to bring a cell phone in the building?
5:15:43 PM Selina L.
Not at all
5:15:54 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
WOW!
5:16:17 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
So it's phones in general. The ebay corporation just hates phones.
5:16:38 PM Selina L.
:-)
5:17:25 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Do you ever get startled by the sound of a phone ringing when you're not at work?
5:17:46 PM Selina L.
Sometimes
5:17:51 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
That would be the most surreal experience I could imagine, not having phones in an entire office
5:18:07 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
How high up the corporate ladder does the "no phone" policy go?
5:18:15 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
I mean, CEO's gotta have a phone, right?
5:18:22 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Probably a blackberry at least.
5:18:43 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
If he visits, can he bring his blackberry into the chat room/office, where they're not allowed?
5:18:50 PM Selina L.
I haven't seen any one carrying it with them. Must be in the locker room
5:18:54 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
he or she I should say
5:18:58 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
I don't know who it is.
5:19:29 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
What happens if you forget and bring your phone inside and it rings?
5:20:10 PM Selina L.
We are not allowed to carry it. There are security checks.
5:20:47 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
What about walkie-talkies. Well, two way radios. We called them walkie-talkies when I was a kid
5:20:54 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
But that term does sound silly now
5:21:02 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Can you carry them? Does security carry them?
5:21:15 PM Selina L.
Security carries it
5:21:55 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Is your ebay office the only office in the building, or are there other companies on other floors as well?
5:22:03 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
And if so, can they bring phones in?
5:22:45 PM Selina L.
I would not have information on other office policies. As of our office, it's not allowed
5:23:12 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Were you surprised when you took the job and they told you that?
5:23:19 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
No phones.
5:23:29 PM Selina L.
Yes, a little surprised
5:23:42 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Do you ever play the Cake song "No Phone" in the office, and everybody laughs? Quietly, of course.
5:24:10 PM Selina L.
Sometimes
5:24:47 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
You think ebay execs are secretly furious that people sell phones over their website?
5:24:56 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Or maybe even openly furious???
5:25:46 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Oooh, and if you have like a corporate party, like a christmas party or a happy hour, or some event, company picnic, whatever, and it's not at your office, are you guys allowed to have phones there?
5:26:35 PM Selina L.
It's not allowed because we want to ensure that there is total confidentiality when dealing with members. We deal with member's accounts and would not want to take the risk of other members listening to passwords and other confidential information.
5:26:50 PM Selina L.
This is totally in the interest of safety to members accounts.
5:27:31 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Oooh. I kind of understand that. But credit card companies have phone banks. That's pretty sensitive info.
5:27:45 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Social Security has phone representatives.
5:27:52 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Banks do.
5:28:18 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Do people need better protection for their ebay account than their credit and bank accounts?
5:28:43 PM Selina L.
We do not want any members accounts to be hacked because of leakage of information from our end as it may cause loss to both members as well as the company.
5:28:58 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
You seem pretty trustworthy, Selina, you wouldn't hack an account would you?
5:29:27 PM Selina L.
We do not have access to member's account. We only have limited access
5:29:34 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Besides, I don't have an account, so I have no problem with you speaking aloud about any of my information.
5:29:45 PM Selina L.
We know what an account means to a member
5:30:12 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
I'm still not really following how having phones in the office might crack account security.
5:30:40 PM Selina L.
You may overhear someone else's communication
5:31:25 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
But you only have limited info, you just said that.
5:32:07 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Oh, you mean "I" may, not "you" like one of the other chatters
5:32:10 PM Selina L.
Yes, but no body can hear it. Only I can see my member's information
5:32:58 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
I still don't know why ebay accounts would be better protected than credit card and bank accounts.
5:33:03 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
They use phones.
5:33:08 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
BIG TIME!
5:33:15 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
It’s actually really convenient.
5:34:00 PM Selina L.
We find chat to be more convenient
5:34:10 PM Selina L.
We do value your feedback
5:34:25 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
But you're shutting me up aren't you?
5:34:29 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Awwwww.
5:34:45 PM Selina L.
Not at all. To provide suggestions or feedbacks regarding a new feature we've introduced, send an email to sneakpeek@ebay.com.
5:35:18 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Is chat considered a new feature? It's not that I mind chat, it's just that it's nowhere near as helpful.
5:35:40 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
What if I want to provide feedback regarding a feature that doesn't exist?
5:35:50 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Like speaking to a human on the telephone.
5:35:55 PM Selina L.
Feedback from members will help them to incorporate new ideas
5:36:09 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
Whoa....That just got me thinking...You're a human, right? Not just a chatting machine?
5:36:45 PM Selina L.
Yes, that's right. I am a human
5:38:13 PM Selina L.
It’s been a pleasure chatting with you today. Thank you for coming to eBay Live Help ! Have a great week ahead !!
5:39:33 PM zalmanj@howrey.com
PEACE!!!
Frankly, I had quite a bit more to say. And honestly, I really don't know whether to believe her or not. What do you guys think, was she being just as sarcastic as me? At first I thought she was, but then she kept going, and into detail. I think I don't believe her about the cell phones, and of course there are phones in some of the offices, maybe even at her desk/cube. But she did explain the security reasoning for not USING phones quite well, so maybe it's legit. I should spread the online rumor, and then just let Snopes take care of it.
Anyway, what started out as an unbelievable pain in the ass ended up as funny blog post. See what you can do when you keep an open mind and look on the bright side of things? Oh, wait, I still don't have the information I need to provide my boss. The unbelievable pain in the ass never left, I just delayed it. Damn. So, yeah, I hate Ebay now. Cheers.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Just wanted to chat, that's all
If someone asks about REM, I will end this Earth.
Since very few people are posting lately, a situation which I am sure is temporary, I've decided to have a little fun and post something a bit self-indulgent. I thought it would be neat to post a track-list comprised entirely of songs about the end of the world. This is going to be long, but no one has written more than a few words on this blog this whole month, so you can just continue to not read it if it's too long.
Pansy bands write songs about their girlfriends, or alternatively, about nonsense that no one understands. Awesome bands write songs about the apocalypse. Without further ado, here are some songs to listen to as the Earth swallows you and our race is extinguished. . .
1. Black Sabbath's Black Sabbath from the album Black Sabbath (Jay's favorite trifecta; same song-album-band names): This song is actually terrifying. Ozzy's screams, the rain, the pounding drums. It was kind of a messed up way for Black Sabbath to open their career, and it's a messed up opening track for any album. It belongs on this list, and in your nightmares.
Key Lyrics:
"Is it the end, my friend?
Satan's come around the bend,
People running 'cause they're scared
You people better go and beware
No! No! Please! No!"
Even this album cover scares the pants off me.2. Painkiller by Judas Priest: I have linked to the Beavis and Butthead version of this video beacuse Beavis' Rob Halford impression is pure gold. That said, this song is completely badass, and 6 minutes long in reality. One of the best songs for headbanging ever. Technically, it's actually about some sort of metal monster which saves the world from Armageddon, but I can't believe you would actually give a damn.
Key Lyrics:
"Planets devastatedWow. Awesome.
Mankind's on its knees
A saviour comes from out the skies
In answer to their pleas"
3. Beast and the Harlot by Avenged Sevenfold: This song is about traditional Biblical end of the world. The lyrics are pretty sweet, and the guitar is amazing--as anyone who has played Guitar Hero 2 is aware. Insanely, it's a bit upbeat and happy sounding for a song that is unabashedly about everyone on the planet earth being killed by a vengeful Lord. The triumphant sounding chorus almost makes me think Avenged Sevenfold just thinks there's something great about being a "dwelling place for demons."
Key Lyrics:
"The city dressed in jewels and gold,4. Love in an Elevator by Aerosmith. I think this song is about a man and a woman who are stuck in an elevator as the world ends around them, and find love before they are consumed by the fire.
Fine linen, myrrh, and pearls.
Her plagues will come all at once
As her mourners watch her burn.
Destroyed in an hour.
Merchants and captains of the world,
Sailors, navigators too.
Will weep and mourn this loss
With her sins piled to the sky.
The Beast and the Harlot."
Key Lyrics:
I kinda hope we get stuckWhat, you don't think I'm serious? Fine.
Nobody gets out alive
She said I'll show you how to fax
In the mailroom, honey
And have you home by five
4. Fourth of July by Soundgarden: We're back to another song that I've always thought of as scary. It's so heavy and moody. It's slow, but it just builds so well and then you know that it's the freaking end of everything. I actually had a nightmare about this song once that was pretty vivid and sticks with me today.
Key Lyrics:
"Cause I heard it in the windThe lyrics actually aren't that explicit. I think that just speaks to the powerful mood of the song.
And I saw it in the sky
And I thought it was the end
And I thought it was the 4th of July"
5. Freya by The Sword: The Sword, as their name would imply, is not very subtle. Their lyricist is just a huge fantasy nerd who obviously smokes a lot of pot while listening to Black Sabbath and reading George R. R. Martin (he actually cites Martin as an influence on his lyrics). That, of course, is probably the greatest mix known to man. If you need further evidence, please consult these lyrics.
Key Lyrics:
"A sword of fire and an axe of cold
vision of the Sibyl has foretold
armies gather on the battle-plain
all will fall and Earth will die in flame."
These guys are nerds. Awesome, awesome nerds. 6. Ænema by Tool. Technically, this isn't about the end of the world. Just the end of California. The theme is pretty apocalyptic though. Moreover, it's dark, heavy, and absolutely fantastic. The best song on an amazing album, and probably a top 3 song by one of the most brilliant bands since the aforementioned Aerosmith. The drums, oh god the drums. A key element in any song about the end of the world, they really work here. Maynard is just such a great vocalist for this theme too. If you don't think this song is great, you probably are a communist.
Key Lyrics:
"'Cause I'm praying for mayhem7. The Thing that Should Not Be by Metallica: This song is about the Great Lord Cthulhu so I could not forget it. It really has the heaviest riff I can think of in a Metallica song, which is appropriate. When that riff isn't blasting, it is creepy as hell. The part where Hetfield screams "Oh my god", right before the guitar solo is one of the better moments on this list. This song brings to mind exactly what it's meant to, our Great Lord awakening from his slumber to drive mankind to madness!
And I'm praying for tidal waves
I wanna see the ground give way
I wanna watch it all go down
Mom please flush it all away
I wanna see it go right in and down
I wanna watch it go right in
Watch you flush it all away"
Key Lyrics:
"Crawling Chaos, underground
Cult has summoned, twisted sound
Out from ruins once possessed
Fallen city, living death"
This is just an artist's imagining of what Cthluhu might look like. A more accurate picture might drive you mad on the spot.Key Lyrics:
"Pushing through the market squareThere are more songs, I'm sure. I cut myself short because this post is already as long as any paper I ever wrote in college. I put more work into this, though. Still, add your favorite end of the world song in the comments!
So many mothers sighing
News had just come over
We had five years left to cry in
News guy wept when he told us
Earth was really dying
Cried so much his face was wet
Then I knew he was not lying"
Monday, February 25, 2008
FANTASY BASEBALL IN FEBRUARY!!!!!
I've decided Jason Grey is an idiot. Keep in mind while reading this that these three articles of his are the only things of his I've read. So my opinion may not be very informed, but that hasn't ever stopped me from having one before. I was reading his "overrated" "underrated" and value by position articles/analysis. First of all, he uses the ESPN rankings as the benchmark. That's fine, but come on, they're just rankings, and there are so much better out there. In fact, I would guarantee that when preparing for Tout Wars, Jason Grey is not doing his ADP analysis with the ESPN rankings. Come on. But anyway, that issue brings me to second of all, which is that he refers to the rankings as "projections." Now, I understand that they are technically projected ranks for the season, not projected stats, and I know he knows that. But when you're averaging 12 different people's seperate and quite subjective projected rankings, that's not projecting anything. If two people differ greatly on their projection of Josh Fields (Berry thinks he takes the job, kicks ass, so he ranked him way higher, others didn't) that doesn't mean at all that he's going to be in the middle, he's going to be one or the other, most likely.
But what really made me realize he was an idiot, was that his "conclusion" for underrated and overrated players in drafts is IDENTICAL. Well, seemingly at least. I think he's just accidentally saying the wrong thing, because he's a bad writer. He's saying that for undervalued guys, if you want to draft them at the projected value or even a round before, you don't need to because they'll likely slip a couple more rounds, so it's safe to wait. Obviously, but good call Jason, congratulations. Then, for the overvalued guys, he says like THE EXACT SAME THING. Here are a couple excerpts:
"For example, let's say you are absolutely sure Grady Sizemore is going to have a monster season; you're certain he's going to return the value of a first-round pick. He's still available when it comes to you at pick No. 9 in the first round of a 12-team draft … take Sizemore, right? Not so fast. It's a worthy temptation, but using data from the many mock drafts I used to determine the current ADP, Sizemore likely will still be there when it comes time for your second-round pick. You can maximize the overall return of your first two picks by selecting someone else in the first round and still grabbing Sizemore a round later."
This isn't so bad, just an odd way of explaining his point. He's explaining the phenomenon of players becoming overrated, or why his analysis even exists, not really giving you a strategy. It kind of belongs more in the "undervalued," if you're thinking that Grady's potential monster season is his projection, but he's slipping to the second round. Who cares, just sort of weird. But this is the last paragraph:
"There are four names on this list to spotlight: Scott Kazmir, Felix Hernandez, Clay Buchholz and Ubaldo Jimenez. I'm not arguing against selecting them, but the numbers suggest you can be a touch more patient before picking 'em. They'll still be there at least a round or two later than you probably think. Sometimes it's tough to practice patience for a guy you really want, but the overall value you will take from your entire draft will make holding off worth it."
"numbers suggest you can be a touch more patient..."??? "They'll still be there at least a round or two later..."??? No, doucheface, you just wrote an article explaining that if you want these guys you CAN'T be patient. Remember? It was THIS article. I'm sure he's trying to say "numbers suggest you SHOULD be a touch more patient, but other morons in your draft won't be, so you're not getting Felix unless you are willing to overpay, which is a bad idea. Wait, and take a guy that is a better value." But he's not saying that. Of course, none of it matters, since his whole analysis is based on projections that aren't projections at all. You know, it's one thing when ESPN wastes howrey's time because I'm reading it at work, but when it's wasting MY TIME too???? I just don't even know what to say to that.
Anyway, no one had posted for a while, and I hate the NBA, so I'm talkin' fantasy baseball jerks. Try and stop me!
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Evaluation of Shaq in Phoenix
I watched Shaq's first game in a Suns uniform last night. Here are a few observations:
1) Shaq can no longer score one on one in the post. While he can still gain position on anyone, he honestly doesn't deserve the double team. He has diffculty turning, can no longer elevate, and has diffculty finishing if it is not a slam.
2) He is no longer a dominant rebounder. I think that he has diffculty getting into position, and cannot adjust to the ball as well in the air. He is probably good for 7 a game (thats pretty good, but not Shaq good).
3) His major contribution to the Suns now is his ability to take up space in the paint on offense and defense. Did you see Amare's numbers last night? A lot of this was becasue Shaq was occupying so many people on the boards, and forcing big men to move around him, so Amare was running free all over the place.
4) Even though he can't block shots like he used to, he still is a defensive presence. Players are still affraid to dive the lane when he helps. I think Phoenix should consider running zone variations to maxmize his defense abilities. Shaq can no longer match up one on one against the other teams best post player. He just doesn't have the quicknes or the feet to do it. He commits a lot of fouls because of this, and the running zone will protect him as well.
5) He is easily exploited on the pick and roll. Kobe and Pau are a great pick and roll tandem, and not every team will have that, but Shaq really struggled last night. He can't hedge, and he can't recover. That pick and roll was there all night.
Overall, I thought Shaq played ok, and in fact better than I expected. I think he needs to realize that he is the 4th option offensively behind Nash, Amare, and Hill/Diaw. He also needs to look more at offensive rebounding to get his points and touches. He is no longer a legitimate post threat, and dumping the ball down to him will result in a turnover more often than not. Those people who were worried about the Suns slowing down, don't need to after last night's offense barrage. It is clear that the Suns are no worse from this trade, whether or not they are better remains to be seen.
It's is diffcult to judge a player on one game, especially when he is recovering from hip surgery, so take this comments with a grain of salt. Let's see after a month.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
This Ain't a Scene, It's an Arms Race
Between the recent news of Jason Kidd switching teams, Shaq moving to Phoenix, and Pau flourishing in Los Angeles, it seems as if the Western Conference is gearing up for mutually assured destruction.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Let's Get Bedarded.... Out There
The merits of the Erik Bedard trade (or, as it will be known in a few years, the Adam Jones deal) are still being debated across the baseball universe: Did
Rick Maese acknowledges in the Baltimore Sun that the trade represents a gamble by the Orioles, but he thinks it's a risk worth taking for the future—especially given the fact that, in his words, "the Orioles will be bad this season. I mean, really bad. Last-place bad. Meatballs 4 bad."
Steve Kelley of the Seattle Times writes that acquiring Bedard gives
so much depends
upon
Felix
Hernandez
Ted Miller of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer drags an otherwise good marriage metaphor across a few too many paragraphs, but he ultimately reaches the conclusion that this is a win-now deal for a Mariners team that boasts a win-later lineup. Nevertheless, he takes the Bread and Circuses approach by writing that Bedard will, at the very least, put butts in the seats.
Interesting piece by Laura Vecsey in which Bedard talks about how happy he is to be out of
Peter Schmuck warns O's fans not to expect any immediate returns from the team's most-recent acquisitions, but is otherwise pleased with the haul. (I'm intentionally avoiding a name joke here. Readers of the Sun know that attempts at comedy at the expense of Mr. Schmuck's good name are as trite as those "why don't they just make the entire thing out of the black box" jokes that people make whenever a plane crashes).
Larry Stone prepares M's fans—and his fellow members of the
The felicitously-named Tristan Cockcroft weighs in on the fantasy impact of the trade, noting that the two key players in the deal—Bedard and Jones—may not be the ones who see the greatest leap in value come draft day.
This blog entry from Sun reporter Roch Kubatko—who, with a name like that, sounds like he could be working the docks with Frank Sobotka—is interesting mainly because, in it, Kubatko reveals that erstwhile Oriole closer Jamie Walker "had no idea which players were coming to the Orioles" in the Bedard deal. Walker's employer—you know, the one who paid him $3,000,000 last year—was planning one of the biggest trades in recent memory, and
And, for the final word on this drawn-out saga, we turn to Keith Law, who acknowledges Bedard's utter beast-ness but questions whether the Mariners paid too much to acquire him. (Note: Law's column is Insider-only, although if you don’t have an Insider account by now then you probably don't care about sports, and you're likely not reading this anyway).
NBA GM- Philadelphia 76ers Edition
This is the first in a series of articles written by Jeff and I in which we take bottom dwelling NBA teams and outline a plan for them to get to the playoffs next year. Any trades made are verified using logic and the NBA trade machine. First up, I will take a crack at fixing the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Team: Billy King put the Sixers in bad shape through years of bad signings, poor drafts, and even worse fiscal responsibility. Among the major gaffe’s:
1) Re-signing Willie Green to a MONSTER deal.
2) Re-signing Sam Dalembert to an even bigger deal, after 1 good playoff series
3) Trading for an aging Chris Webber
4) Signing Aaron Mckie to a monster deal at the age of 31!!
5) Giving Kenny Thomas ridiculous money
6) Re-signing Kyle Korver to a long-term, multi-million dollar deal. (Oddly, King thought that the combination of Korver, Green, and Dalembert were going to provide a young nucleus for the future. No one else in the world, including the players, thought the same.)
7) Greg Buckner…multi-million dollar deal. Enough said.
Tons more here, but you get the idea.
The Sixers finally decided last year that it was time to blow this thing up. They traded AI for Andre Miller, pieces, and draft picks. Then they drafted some solid players in Jason Smith and Thad Young. They cut ties with the worst GM in professional sports (yes he is worse than Isaiah) in King, and then traded Kyle Korver for picks and Gordon Giracek’s expiring deal.
Despite all of this, the Sixers have played well. Mo Cheeks has done a terrific job with the team and at this writing, the Sixers are 20-30, and a game out of a playoff spot. Though, this is more a function of a terrible Eastern Confrence, not a good team.
The Moves:
Here is the current roster. A couple of things stick out:
1) The Sixers are awfully low on talent
2) They are still paying Aaron Mckie and Chris Webber MILLIONS of dollars.
Still, with Webber and Mckie coming off the books finally, the Sixers are poised to make a big move this offseason. The big question is who they go after, and if they can convince them to play in Philly.
Here is what the Sixers should do:
Trade Andre Miller, Rodney Carney, and Willie Green to Cleveland for Eric Snow, Ira Newble’s expiring contract, and Devin Brown’s Expiring Contract.
The Cavs will make this deal because Andre Miller represents a very good point guard to complement Lebron. They would also pick up a decent young role player/defender in Rodney Carney. Carney has become obsolete in Philly with the addition of Thad Young. The Cavs are in win now mode, and this deal might provide the piece they need to push for a title.
The Sixers need to make this move because they need Willie Green’s ridiculous contract off the books. Essentially, here they would trade Green’s terrible 4 year deal, for Snow’s terrible 2 year deal. They would also pick up 2 expiring deals, and have incredible space this offseason. Snow’s deal would expire next year and the Sixers would get additional space going forward. Miller represents the Sixers best trade asset, and with 2 years left on his deal now is the time to move him. It’s unlikely he would resign with the team anyway, and his value has never been higher. Unfortunately, new GM Stefanski has insisted he won’t move Miller for an expiring deal. That is a mistake.
Sign Elton Brand and Bonzi Wells in free agency
The glaring hole for the Sixers is the 4 spot, and since Josh Smith is going to resign with Atlanta, that leaves Elton Brand as the main PF in free agency. The Sixers need to go after Brand hard. He is only 28, and is great rebounder, and solid double-double guy. He would be a great fit in the Eastern Confrence, and in Philly.
Next, the Sixers need an impact scorer to play off the bench. Bonzi Wells fits the bill, and looks to be the only FA coming available that would be able to provide the instant offense they need. He can be a cancer at times, but he has been a good citizen this year in Houston, and has been a great 6-7th man for them. It might take a lot to lure him away, but at the right price, I think he is worth the risk.
Resign Louis Williams and Andre Iguodala
Louis Williams looks to be the point guard of the future in Philly. He has made solid progress in his two years in the league, and the organization really believes in him. Andre is going to find out this year in free agency that he is not as coveted as he thinks. Most GMs and player personel in the league think he is 2nd option at best, and more likely a third or fourth option. That said, I think if you land Brand, the other AI could fit in very well. The big key here for the Sixers is NOT TO OVER-PAY FOR THESE GUYS. There is no reason to, other teams are not going to be throwing money at them, why should the Sixers?
Draft DJ Augustin and Chris-Douglas Roberts
According to where the Sixers are likely to draft, and Chad Ford’s big board, these are the two draft picks that make sense. DJ Augustin gives the Sixers a solid stable of young PG’s with Lou Williams , and he could develop into a top notch point guard. I know Chris-Douglas Roberts seems a lot like Rodney Carney, but he is not. Roberts has got a well rounded offensive game, and has great handle. He also gives you great versatility with his size. He could develop into a solid contributor, maybe even a starter.
The Squad: Assuming the Sixers pay reasonable money for all the signings, and get Iguodala back at a reasonable contract, this roster is feasible.
Starters
Samuel Dalembert
Elton Brand
Thaddeus Young
Andre Iguodala
Louis Williams
Bench
Jason Smith
Bonzi Wells
Chris Douglas-Roberts
DJ Augustin
Eric Snow
Obviously, the team would add emergency depth, but I imagine this would be the rotation. There are more moves to make here in the coming years, and with Snow coming off the books it is possible, but I think this squad would get the Sixers back on track.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Valley of the Stun
Since most experts feel strongly that Shaq is a bad fit for Phoenix, I’ve come up with ten non-basketball reasons the Suns sought The Big Aristotle:
9) Not wanting to pay a lot on long-distance calls and finding himself mysteriously absent from Sir Charles’ Fave Five, he needed to move within Chuck’s local calling region
8) He refused to live under Miami’s Hobbit ruler
7) Phoenix seen as less image conscious
5) Phoenix-area hate crimes spiraling out of control
4) Anti-Irish backlash endangering O’Neal in Miami
2) Yeah, but it’s a dry heat
1) Fell in love with the city during “his college years”
Maybe Lil' Penny just stalks too much?
LIST: Rejected David Bowie Alter-egos
Opus Asteroid
Dagwood Blackhole
Dilbert Eclipse
Prince Valiant Meteorite
Doonesbury Moonrock
Hagar Van Allen Belt
Snoop Doggy Dogg
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
The Gerry McNamara All Stars
A tribute to players that gave 8 years or more of service to college basketball...
Joey Brown- Georgetown: a fixture of my youth, Brown led the Hoyas to 11 NCAA appearances in his 13 seasons in DC, including one magical run with Waldo Faldo from Family Matters.
Scott Padgett- Kentucky: after playing in virtual anonymity for much of the '80s, Rick Pitino put Kentucky back on the map and introduced most of us to Padgett. Playing for 23 seasons for big blue, Padgett is probably best remembered as the only mentally disabled player to ever win an NCAA title.
Steve Wojciechowski- Duke: frustrated with a complete lack of job prospects, at home or abroad, this unathletic scrappy white point guard finally convinced his coach to give him a job. Will work for Dude.
Dante Calabria- UNC: during his nine seasons in Chapel Hill he transformed from a fresh faced youth that Dicky V would froth over to the fat backstreet boy that hogs the ball during the NBA All-Star Celebrities Game.
Saul Smith- Kentucky: Saul spent the better of the ‘90s turning his Dad’s team (whose real name by the way is Orlando?! How did I not know this?) from a dynasty into an unlikable Elite Eight
drop-out. Saul had the unique ability to make you even dislike his otherwise underrated teammates.
Mharktian Burgaettnerry- Duke: don’t remember him? Playing under the guise of Mark Alarie beginning in 1983 (the year of our lord) Alarie steadily improved and became a first-team All-ACC player by his senior year. Around the same time Alarie fell head-over-heals in love with a “colleague”. After the season he was faced with the choice of leaving Durham and his puppy love, so he instead opted for a name change and makeover to “Danny Ferry”. At 25 years old Ferry dominated college ball, winning the Naismith in 1989, but four years flew right by and once again he was faced with the grim prospect of leaving his now wife and their growing family. Alarie-Ferry chose once again to spurn the pros and redo his image; this time a little hairdo adjustment was all that it took. Entering his prime at 28 years old Christian Laettner was one of the best college basketball players of all time. He won award after award and took Duke to back-to-back titles. By now the press was onto his story. Questions surfaced about his “relationship” with his coach and his age. To quell the rumors of the first, Alarie-Ferry-Laettner was forced to publicly express affection 
for another man. To silence the second, Alarie-Ferry-Laettner was forced to finally go pro. But the NBA was tough and he longed for a return to Durham. After the post-“Laettner” luster of Duke had worn off, Alarie-Ferry-Laettner saw an opportunity to once again reenroll. Assuming the identity of devout Mormon Chris Burgess, Alarie-Ferry-Laettner dominated the California high school ranks. He entered Duke a heralded recruit, but soon found his ex-lover playing the field with younger, handsomer players. Nearing 40, his game had diminished significantly. The public fawning by his coach over other men finally drove Alarie-Ferry-Laettner-Burgess to the edge. He left Duke after nearly two decades of service. He’s attempted comebacks, but none have been successful. He was last seen working the (non-curly) fries at Hardee’s.
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Big Pimpin' Up in NYC / It's just the Jigga Man, Pimp C, and BUN B
Apparently he overdosed on syrup. Dude must have loved pancakes.
Interestingly enough, the death of Shell Kepler, TV's Amy Vining from General Hospital, is currently the most popular story on CNN, above any Super Tuesday coverage and a full 5 spots above Pimp C's obit. The longest-running serial produced in Hollywood weighs in at 11,489 episodes and counting. Over 45 years, it has established a pretty dedicated fan base (including my mother) which I guess southern rap and democracy itself can't even contend with.
Her death was not condiment-related.
A boring post on football
My reflections on Superbowl Sunday were well summed up by, oddly enough, this article from Baseball Prospectus, which I will quote without further comment:
The interesting question is to what degree a championship validates a team’s greatness. In other words, would the 1927 Yankees still be considered one of the greatest teams of all time had they somehow lost to the Pirates in the World Series? Given the marathon length of the baseball season and its many concomitant tests, the answer has to be yes. We judge a team by its record and by the strength of its components, and while the championship always makes a nice cherry on top of the season sundae, its presence or absence doesn’t tell us anything we didn’t know before—simply that sometimes a great team can lose a short series against a good one.
...Football teams face a higher test. Though the Patriots were an indisputably great football team, given the brevity of the football season and the variation in team schedules, luck has an outsize role to play in forming even an undefeated season, and it is not automatic that they were one of, say, the top five single-season teams in history just because they didn’t lose. We’ve seen enough football teams take perfect records deep into the season in recent years to know that the difference between the Patriots’ 16-0 of 2007 and, say, the Chargers’ 14-2 of 2006 is a couple of lucky bounces. Indeed, the Chargers lost both of their games by a single field goal, also the margin of loss in their divisional playoff against the Pats.
Given that there have been only two undefeated seasons in the modern history of the NFL, and recognizing that of the 1972 Dolphins came in a shorter season, it is certain that such good luck is hard to come by, but it is equally certain the Patriots needed it. Many of their games were blowouts, but they also beat the Eagles by three points in Week 12, the Ravens by three in Week 13, and the Giants by three in Week 17. The Patriots could easily have gone 13-3 or 14-2, still would have been historically great (and a dynasty), but the Super Bowl upset by the Giants wouldn’t have had quite the same resonance.
Because of the influence of luck, winning the championship in football carries more weight than does taking a Game Seven in baseball. ... The celestial football fan would take them in any derby of great teams, but while the 1906 Cubs, 1931 A’s, 1954 Indians, and 2001 Mariners carry little stigma from losing a game that was somewhere between their 161st and 170th of the season, the same can’t be said of the Patriots. They showed real vulnerabilities in the championship game, vulnerabilities that throw the conventional evaluation of the rest of their season into doubt.
Monday, February 4, 2008
R.S.I. + M.L.B. + S.E.C. = R.I.P.
Move along, nothing to see here. Turns out Randy Newsom's brilliant idea wasn't exactly all on the up and up. Looks like you are going to have to wait a bit to buy shares of your favorite minor league player.
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Sunday, February 3, 2008
Voodoo Studies, Vol. 1
This study has just been brought to my attention, despite the fact that it was apparently conducted in 1987. I guess when I was 5 years old, I didn't have much interest in the causes behind the burgeoning divorce rate. Go figure. Many others like it have cropped up over years and have been frequently cited as a reason not to cohabit before marriage, treating cohabitation as some sort of magic button that if pressed will doom your relationship. This is simply one of many ridiculous mass-media manufactured prescriptions resulting from the misinterpretation of scholarly research, my favorite of these being the "Flossing can add 6.4 years to your life" fiasco.
For the benefit of the pair of readers of this blog who are not at least quasi-trained economists, these studies are, in my professional opinion, "wack". While I have not read the studies in their entirety, I think I can anticipate what is going on here...
The best of these studies done at Emory University with the Centers for Disease Control, indicated that people with gingivitis and periodontitis have a mortality rate that is 23 percent to 46 percent higher than those who don't... why? They are linked to increased rates of cardiovascular disease and stroke, as well as to an increase in mortality from other causes, such as infections.Gee, let me think about why non-flossers might get heart disease. Maybe because they are altogether lazy people and don't care for any parts of their bodies to the point that they should? For all I know, these are very rigorous statisticians and other health-related factors were controlled for. But I am skeptical.
As for the marriage study, these guys did my work for me:
...it's not cohabitation that causes divorce," Stern emphasizes. "Rather, the people who cohabit are simply different from those who marry right away; their matches overall tend not to be as good. In fact, our study suggests that if there were less of a stigma associated with cohabitation and more people lived together before marriage, the divorce rate would fall because everyone would learn more about their partners' annoying habits before tying the knot.I have to assume that the original study controls for religious devotion, but that would seem to me to be another factor here: pre-marital cohabitation is verboten by most organized religions and divorce is similarly frowned upon. Cohabitants are less likely to be religious and therefore more likely to divorce because religious people tend to stay together because they think that God will hate them if they don't.
It's days like this that I remember why I want to teach economics. I have this ridiculous compulsion to make sure that the youth of our country think correctly. I don't know, call me crazy.
UPDATE: This is not meant to be an indictment of those particular studies necessarily. Since I have not examined them closely, I obviously have no idea how rigorous the analysis was. It is entirely possible that the researcher in question controlled for all the relevant factors that I mention. However, the moral of the story is don't take mass-media soundbites from academic research too seriously. Find and evaluate the source on its own merits.
Saturday, February 2, 2008
Art Monk. . .You Mean Art CHUMP
I know the Skins fans are not going to want to hear this, but Art Monk getting into the hall of fame while Andre Reed does not is an utter travesty against mankind. It is an abomination unto football. I defy you to make a case for Art Monk that does not DEMAND entrance for Andre Reed. I DEFY YOU!
Any for Monk case not based on moustache thickness falls apart under scrutiny
Let's look at the numbers; we'll do this JAWS style and take career and peak (peak was selected as best 7 years by # of receptions):
Art Monk v. Andre Reed, career:
Games: 224 v. 234
Receptions: 940 v. 951
Yards: 12,721 v. 13,198
Touchdowns: 68 v. 87
Yards/Rec: 13.5 v. 13.9
Oh, what's that? Andre Reed was BETTER ON LITERALLY EVERY MEASURE??? Maybe Art Monk was better during his peak?
Art Monk v. Andre Reed, best 7 years:
Games: 111 v. 111
Receptions: 567 v. 532
Yards: 7,617 v. 7,590
Touchdowns: 39 v. 50
Yards/Rec: 13.4 v. 14.3
Art Monk does a bit better here but not really. Andre Reed scored significantly more touchdowns and was a better big play threat. As the guys at pro-football-reference will tell you, a touchdown is worth significantly more than catching the ball at the one. I think that even during their respective peaks, Andre was a better receiver than Monk.
Andre Reed was even better regarded at the time, making 4 more pro-bowls and one more all-pro team.
But let's be honest. These guys are basically statistically indistinguishable. I don't want to go into the deep and absurd statistical nonsense that goes on over at PFR, but thankfully even a raw cut like this can show you that there is essentially no difference, and if anything, Andre was a bit better. In addition, I don't think there's even a case to be made in terms of supporting cast.
Yeah those early 90's Bills teams were awesome, which I will assert loudly and repeatedly when asked, and often when NOT asked. Someone may ask me if I'm going to get dessert, I'll just bellow that the '90 Bills were an unholy collection of talent that got unlucky in one game and if there was any justice they would be enshrined along side the '86 Bears and '72 Dolphins in the collective mind of football fans everywhere.
Yet those 80's-90's Redskins teams were also pretty good. They even won a couple of Super Bowls, a statistic that is pretty meaningless but I guess doesn't TAKE AWAY from how good they were. They were a solid team for Art Monk's whole career and even had a set of decent QBs.
It's obvious that Jim Kelly was infinitely better than Joe Theisman and Mark Rypien's best qualities combined. I'm just not sure how much that should be weighed when considering the relative qualities of Art Monk and Andre Reed. I'm obviously torn between my desire to elevate Andre Reed while not disparaging the amazing Jim Kelly, but I think that it's possible for Jim Kelly to be awesome and for Andre Reed to still be better than Art Monk. That's a deep conversation, I think, in terms of how much the QB's abilities influence the receiver's statistics.
Ultimately, I don't think that supporting cast lends a significant edge either way, so I'm pretty comfortable just looking at the raw statistics above. If you do that, there is no plausible case for Art Monk that excludes Andre Reed. I demand justice.
Ultimately, I think I will actually get it. Andre Reed will get in next year, facilitated by the admission of Art Monk. Bruce Smith will be a first ballot guy. Steve Tasker will get in someday. And I believe people will look at all of these hall of fame players on the same team, and say, damn, that was one freaking awesome team who played a couple of bad games at bad times.
Stupidly Deep Post about Orioles and M's
This trade is almost happening. It is obviously great news for the O's, because they get Adam Jones, which is worth more than the entire package the Twins got for Johan. Most experts I've seen would have him between 6-10 on the top 100 prospect lists if he were eligible. Chris Tillman is supposedly a heckuva prospect himself, if a young kid.
But I ask one question to the many, many O's fans on this blog. George Sherrill? WTF? I read this point somewhere else, but it's worth restating. Why would a team that is trying to contend trade away a good 30 year old left handed reliever who throws 40 innings a year. . .and why would a team that is rebuilding even think about acquiring such a guy? Do you think they are going to flip him to another team? If not, he's just going to eat up innings from some young kid who's looking for a tryout. This seems incredibly retarded, from both sides.
I just thought I would bring this up, to make sure that the O's fans and the Mariner's fan on this blog doesn't get TOO happy about this trade. These teams are still doing something head scratchingly weird.
Maybe you all have some thoughts, about George Sherrill, who represents a great pickup in holds leagues. Or maybe you're just like, what the hell Wilson, you are writing about a marginal left handed relief pitcher in February! Get a life! And then I'm like, shut up!
Friday, February 1, 2008
Where were you on that one, Cantwell?!
Man, I wish I was a U.S. senator. To be such a factor in the shaping of domestic and foreign policy would be, you know, cool. Cruising around in motorcades, slapping interns asses, all of this would be great. But more importantly, I would finally have the national podium and microphone from which to blast those cold-hearted, nefarious conspirators known to the general public as NFL executives. I mean, they clearly robbed my beloved Seahawks of their fair chance at a Superbowl championship, and Senators Cantwell and Murray did NOTHING. I guess that's what you get when you elect women to high level public office.* I mean, what are their core issues? Labor? Energy?!?! Come on. It takes an old pro like Arlen Specter to truly understand his constituents' needs, hopes, and dreams. Which is why, I'm sure, he his raising this ever so pressing issue to the forefront. Frankly, I wasn't even aware this had occurred. I mean, I immediately saw its antitrust implications, and the harm to the consumer it most certainly caused. But more importantly, it highlights the fact that the NFL robbed a shiny set of Superbowl rings from, like my Seahawks, the Philadelphia Eagles.
Okay, enough of that. Seriously? Really? I mean, in the words of The West Wing's Leo McGarry: "We're going to make a federal case out of this? I mean, we're LITERALLY going to make a federal case out of this?" I also love how, while his first letters are dated Nov. 15th, and Dec. 19th, he went public with it 2 DAYS BEFORE THE SUPERBOWL. Is he struggling to get re-elected? I strongly doubt it, he's one of the most powerful Senators. Is he just that big of a fan? What the hell?
Honestly, he's reconsidering the NFL's exemption from antitrust laws. BECAUSE OF THE WAY THEY HANDLED SPYGATE. Does he just, every 3 months, google ___-gate, see what comes up, and determine it's ridden with federal law breaking? I'm not saying the NFL's antitrust exemption shouldn't be reevaluated. I have no idea. But because of Spygate? Oh, he says he's been reconsidering it for sometime, but this is what makes him decide to go public with his thoughts???
This does say something about Eagles fans though. Man.
*I, of course, do not believe that this is what happens when you elect a woman to high level public office. I am honored to be one of the few states with 2 female Senators. We rock, as do women more powerful than I. Plus, Maria Cantwell's, like, the hottest Senator there is (which is, of course, not saying much). ZING!
Cruelty extends beyond the blog...
I just hit the quarter century mark, and for some reason got a strangely cruel round of birthday wishes. Here are the 5 best I got from friends and family, who will remain anonymous:
5. So it’s your birthday...what, so you want a cookie?
4. 25, huh? Always imagined you would be living with your folks getting fat off cereal at 25. Give it 5 years.
3. When i was 25 I had two PhDs, what do you have? (Ok, I’ll cheat; this one was from my father...).
2. 25? Given your habits, and vices...are you having a mid-life crisis?
1. Happy Birthday, and by birthday I mean day you were spawned and wrought hellish misery down upon everyone in your life...
Sheesh…so much for people being nice to you on your birthday!
I echo Wilson's sentiments: Please read down, the other posts are terrific.
Interesting Question
Marginal Revolution poses an interesting question, but makes the uncharacteristic mistake of generalizing based on personal observation. I'm not certain that Slovakian women are hotter than Austrian women. Anecdotally that's certainly true, but someone needs to systematically collect data on this, then we can start talking about causes. Any ideas how that could be done?
I hesitate to look at celebrities, for instance, because then I worry you are capturing a self selected sample. Also, this raises the question of whether or not we are wondering about average beauty across the whole population, or some sort of more specific question like level of beauty across the top 1% most beautiful.
Incidentally, the third comment down is by Derek Lowe. Regrettably, not THE Derek Lowe, but he's probably going to be just as valuable in fantasy this year as THE Derek Lowe...
P.S. : I hestiated to post this because it crowds out hilarious posts from both Jeff and Mike immediately below. Take the time to scroll down!