Wednesday, January 23, 2008

I'd rather buy shares in "Sail Away"

I would have simply posted this as a reply to the previous comment, but Jeff gave me posting privileges and I intend to abuse them until he wisely takes them away.

I feel like there is very little opportunity here, and I guess that makes me a bit of a sourpuss. I just feel like this void that Jensen Lewis is talking about doesn't exist. It's being filled by agents and teams, who are already invested in the future of their clients and employees, respectively.

You've got a guy like Randy Newsome, who struck out 22 and walked 19 in 49 innings last year in AA at the ripe old age of 25. A guy like that is not likely to succeed in the major leagues, and the Indians and the agents know it, which is why he's making a paltry living and thought this business might be a good idea.

The players who are going to succeed--or rather, are perceived as likely to succeed by teams and agents--like Smoak, they are not going to participate in this process because they don't need to. Even if they did, their chance of success is so high that the payout would be paltry.

So if you play this game, the only guys to buy are the guys who are not being supported by their teams or agents. And some of them DO succeed. In 2002 the Indians took Jensen Lewis with the 994th pick, and he's relieving for them today. But he was awesome in the minor leagues, and dollars to donuts that after he struck out 44 in 39 innings at AA Akron he did not want for money.

Here's the problem though; Joe Schmoe has far less information on Randy Newsome than the Indians, or his agent, who will invest accordingly based on their estimates of his chances to succeed. The best you can hope to do is get lucky with any given player. So that's fun I guess, but it's just a crapshoot. Who's going to buy Jensen Lewis at his IPO? The Indians selected 50 players in that draft, 4 of them have played in the major leagues.

We're all gamblers here, of course, so we'd probably buy in. I just think there is far less opportunity here than Randy Newsome thinks. If teams can't identify guys who are going to succeed, then fans certainly can't. There are a gajillion minor league players. It's like buying the world's nerdiest lottery ticket.

1 comment:

Jeff Rudnicki said...

That entire Oilers offense was ridiculous. Country Slaughter was the truth.