Jay and I both so enjoyed reading Ryan and Jeff's draft breakdown we drafted a response. I am a bit of an addict, so I tend to be less sensitive than I should be to complaints of overlong posts. Deal with the length or don't read it (that's what she said?). You can always skip down to the questionable masculinity in Jeff's post about American Idol below.
This is basically a round by round breakdown, in response to Jeff and Ryan's post. I provide my notes on the round first, then a breakdown of my pick. Jay then replies with some general comments on his pick and on the round in general.
Round 1
1 Jose Reyes - Ebner
2 David Wright - Wilson
3 Alex Rodriguez - Jay
4 Matt Holliday - Bri
5 Hanley Ramirez - Ryan
6 Chase Utley - Evan
7 Miguel Cabrera - Jeff
8 Jimmy Rollins - Jon
9 Prince Fielder - Paul
10 Ryan Howard – Emery
“Another shoulder surgery survivor, Ramirez is in much the same situation as Vernon Wells . . . Ramirez, on the other hand, is coming off shoulder surgery, something that figures to depress his power, at least in the first part of the season. While he should come back to a high level, the same can't be said for the cast surrounding him. Added in with the recovering shoulder, Ramirez's prospects for this season aren't quite as high as one would expect based on his talent and past production.”
Jay’s Pick: It’s Alex Rodriguez.
Round 2
11 Johan Santana - Emery
12 Grady Sizemore - Paul
13 Brandon Phillips - Jon
14 Albert Pujols - Jeff
15 Ryan Braun - Evan
16 Carl Crawford - Ryan
17 David Ortiz - Bri
18 Alfonso Soriano - Jay
19 Vladimir Guerrero - Wilson
20 Carlos Lee - Ebner
Notes: Alfonso Soriano has no business going that late. I don’t understand that at all. I wouldn’t have taken Crawford or Phillips or Ortiz or Sizemore over him. I mean, he’s only one year removed from 40-40-40 and hit 30 home runs and stole 20+ bases last year with a bum leg. He’s not usable at 2B anymore, but I cannot understand passing him up for Grady’s infinite strikeouts or Crawford’s limp wristed game. Pujols is a great pick. Huge risk, but go big or go home.
Round 3
21 Jake Peavy - Ebner
22 Ichiro Suzuki - Wilson
23 B.J. Upton - Jay
24 Mark Teixeira - Bri
25 Carlos Beltran - Ryan
26 Lance Berkman - Evan
27 Alex Rios - Jeff
28 Curtis Granderson - Jon
29 Erik Bedard - Paul
30 Derek Jeter - Emery
Notes: Whoops on Granderson, he couldn’t hit lefties, and then he broke his finger. Heck of a writer though. I thought he was wildly overrated going into this draft so I was happy to see him go 3rd round. I agree with Ryan on his assessment of Beltran. Very risky. Rios is a high upside pick, but not one I would have made. My favorite pick of the round is Teixeira, who has very little downside and absurd upside. Why was he going earlier in drafts last year coming off of a worse year in the tougher league?
Round 4
31 Magglio Ordonez - Emery
32 Nick Markakis - Paul
33 Justin Morneau - Jon
34 Troy Tulowitzki - Jeff
35 Manny Ramirez - Evan
36 Travis Hafner - Ryan
37 Aramis Ramirez - Bri
38 Victor Martinez - Jay
39 Brian Roberts - Wilson
40 Derrek Lee - Ebner
Notes: Tulo is a good pick. He will be strong at shortstop, and Coors is oh-so-good to him. It actually blew my mind that someone reached on Markakis and it wasn’t one of the
Round 5
41 Garrett Atkins - Ebner
42 Chipper Jones - Wilson
43 Cole Hamels - Jay
44 Corey Hart - Bri
45 Hunter Pence - Ryan
46 C.C. Sabathia - Evan
47 Chone Figgins - Jeff
48 Josh Beckett - Jon
49 Brandon Webb - Paul
50 Adam Dunn - Emery
Notes: Corey Hart. Damn your soulful singing eyes. How did everyone else know you would be so awesome? I guess my plan of waiting and then taking him and Chris B. Young with my next two picks was conceived in delusions. I’m somewhat less excited about Hunter Pence. There’s no evidence that he can take a walk, and he was very lucky on balls in play last year. Baseball Prospectus suggests that his post All-Star Break numbers (.293 .348 .464) are more realistic. He’s still got some speed though. Also . . . Adam Dunn probably would have come all the way around. There’s a guy who was the opposite of my philosophy this year. Chone I think has very little downside. You know what you are getting, and I think you are pretty safely getting it.
Round 6
51 Justin Verlander - Emery
52 Carlos Guillen - Paul
53 Adrian Gonzalez - Jon
54 Ryan Zimmerman - Jeff
55 Jonathan Papelbon - Evan
56 Howie Kendrick - Ryan
57 Torii Hunter - Bri
58 Carlos Pena - Jay
59 Chris Young (OF) - Wilson
60 Francisco Rodriguez - Ebner
Notes: Zimmerman is a beautiful pick. I kept getting burned trying to wait on guys in this league. Kendrick isn’t a terrible pick, but I think it may be dreaming a bit. He still can’t take a pitch and hasn’t shown any power or speed. I guess the upside is a .320 batting average, but I think it’ll be mostly empty. Should have taken your boy Tejada instead. Torii Hunter is a completely bewildering choice. I guess he won’t be that bad, but this is way too early. I guess you and Bill Stoneman are making the same mistake, so maybe I’m the one who’s crazy.
Round 7
61 Joe Mauer - Ebner
62 Brian McCann - Wilson
63 Miguel Tejada - Jay
64 Robinson Cano - Bri
65 Todd Helton - Ryan
66 Russell Martin - Evan
67 Eric Byrnes - Jeff
68 Vernon Wells - Jon
69 Bobby Abreu - Paul
70 Jorge Posada - Emery
Notes: Todd Helton is an amazing pick here. I was waiting on him, and got burned yet again. All the reasons you lay out are absolutely true. He was at the top of my board for several rounds and I got greedy waiting on him and got burned (again). I like Tejada and Byrnes as well. Although I expect a gigantic regression from Byrnes he’ll still be solid. As for Vernon Wells and Bobby Abreu, I guess they weren’t reaches but you couldn’t pay me to draft either one so I’m always happy when other people do.
Round 8
71 Brad Hawpe - Emery
72 Ian Kinsler - Paul
73 Jeff Francoeur - Jon
74 Aaron Harang - Jeff
75 Dan Haren - Evan
76 Michael Young - Ryan
77 Carlos Zambrano - Bri
78 J.J. Putz - Jay
79 John Smoltz - Wilson
80 Nick Swisher - Ebner
Notes: The love for Hawpe is confusing to me. He’s a decent hitter who plays in Coors, so I guess that’s good. I just see him as really one of a whole bunch of outfielders; Swisher seems like the better pick to me. Zambrano I’m also not a fan of, because walks aren’t a roto category in our league. Michael Young is another of these guys who is very good in our league, and not very good anywhere else.
Round 9
81 Joe Nathan - Ebner
82 Huston Street - Wilson
83 Billy Wagner - Jay
84 Takashi Saito - Bri
85 Tim Lincecum - Ryan
86 Jason Bay - Evan
87 Delmon Young - Jeff
88 Scott Kazmir - Jon
89 Francisco Cordero - Paul
90 Bobby Jenks - Emery
Notes: I tend to believe Baseball Prospectus, who blame Bay’s huge decline last year on recovery from a knee injury. They always say, once you display a skill, you own it, and he’s not quite old enough to show that major a decline. I believe he’ll bounce back and seems like a fine pick there. I also like Delmon Young quite a bit. I would have taken Kazmir myself, but all this talk about his elbow has me scared, and I’m trying to balance the amount of risk my team takes on.
Round 10
91 Roy Halladay - Emery
92 Matt Kemp - Paul
93 Mike Lowell - Jon
94 Shane Victorino - Jeff
95 Rafael Furcal - Evan
96 Chris Young (P) - Ryan
97 Fausto Carmona - Bri
98 Felix Hernandez - Jay
99 Jacoby Ellsbury - Wilson
100 Javier Vazquez - Ebner
Notes: Felix is a good upside pick here, and Halladay is also pretty strong at this point in the draft. I’m not a huge fan of Mike Lowell, but I do like Matt Kemp quite a bit. If the Dodgers don’t play him, they are ‘dodging’ good sense! Get it? I’m not as funny as Jeff/Ryan/Jay.
Round 11
101 Daisuke Matsuzaka - Ebner
102 Yovani Gallardo - Wilson
103 James Shields - Jay
104 Francisco Liriano - Bri
105 Roy Oswalt - Ryan
106 Jose Valverde - Evan
107 Adrian Beltre - Jeff
108 Kenji Johjima - Jon
109 Ben Sheets - Paul
110 Placido Polanco - Emery
Notes: Go Ben Sheets! I hope that works out. I like him significantly better than Liriano there. Oswalt will probably be fine, but his strikeout rate decline is actually terrifying. The Astros are going to be historically bad, and I think he’s going to have trouble getting wins. I will never understand taking a mediocre catcher like Johjima before round twenty.
Round 12
111 Gary Sheffield - Emery
112 Jim Thome - Paul
113 Raul Ibanez - Jon
114 Dustin Pedroia - Jeff
115 Paul Konerko - Evan
116 Alex Gordon - Ryan
117 Kelly Johnson - Bri
118 Jermaine Dye - Jay
119 Joakim Soria - Wilson
120 Hideki Matsui - Ebner
Notes: So much love for Hideki Matsui, this needs to be explained to me.
Jay’s Pick: I’m with
Round 13
121 Dan Uggla - Ebner
122 James Loney - Wilson
123 Mariano Rivera - Jay
124 Andruw Jones - Bri
125 Rickie Weeks - Ryan
126 Kosuke Fukudome - Evan
127 Chad Cordero - Jeff
128 Rafael Soriano - Jon
129 Evan Longoria - Paul
130 Aaron Heilman - Emery
Notes: Soriano is a great pick. Heilman is a confusing pick. Cordero is a fat pick. Rivera is an old pick. Rickie Weeks is a high upside pick. Uggla is a bad pick.
Jay’s Pick: Good summary
As for my pick, are you fucking kidding me? Putz, Wagner, and Rivera? I have both NY closers? I don’t even know what the hell I’m doing. The sad thing is, two of these guys will get injured or lose their job, and I won’t even win in Saves. I hate that I drafted these closers. The places/rounds they went is all fine, they just weren’t good picks for my team. Ugh.
Round 14
131 Kevin Youkilis - Emery
132 Matt Capps - Paul
133 Manny Corpas - Jon
134 John Lackey - Jeff
135 Aaron Rowand - Evan
136 Matt Cain - Ryan
137 Trevor Hoffman - Bri
138 Brett Myers - Jay
139 Joba Chamberlain - Wilson
140 Edwin Encarnacion - Ebner
Notes: Cain is better than Hill. That is a good pick. I think the Brett Myers pick is also good, as he seems highly likely to strike out 180 and win 15 games. That is a good value here.
Jay’s Pick: Aaron Rowand Sucks. Lackey is great here. Stash him on the DL. I too like Myers here, I think a fantastic value. As for Joba, well, he may become a starter, maybe not. And holds guys just aren’t sexy.
Round 15
141 Johnny Damon - Ebner
142 Jeremy Hermida - Wilson
143 Rafael Betancourt - Jay
144 Carlos Marmol - Bri
145 Brad Lidge - Ryan
146 Rich Hill - Evan
147 Josh Hamilton - Jeff
148 Heath Bell - Jon
149 Jonathan Broxton - Paul
150 Josh Fields - Emery
Notes: It’s guys like Josh Hamilton that will make me damn PECOTA to the depths of hell when I lose this year. PECOTA is unable to predict that kind of breakout, so I just ignore it. Josh Hamilton defies description. Let’s look at his line from this spring, which I suppose is meaningless but still awesome:
.460/.500/.780 in 50 at bats; 10 XBH including 2 triples; 1 steal
Gah! When I lose in fantasy it will be because of men like Josh Hamilton; black swans that utterly defy prediction. I like all the high K relievers going here, but last year saw Mike Gonzales, Scott Linebrink, and Akinori Otsuka go in round 15 so I guess we have some expectation on how good these guys will actually end up being.
Jay’s Pick: I like Hermida and Hamilton, but Hamilton better, so I’d have gone with him. In fact, I regret not taking him. He could be huge. I can’t believe I took Betancourt over Broxton. I always get Broxton. Wait a minute, I still need batters…
Round 16
151 Jon Rauch - Emery
152 Chad Billingsley - Paul
153 Hideki Okajima - Jon
154 Dustin McGowan - Jeff
155 Jason Isringhausen - Evan
156 B.J. Ryan - Ryan
157 Kevin Gregg - Bri
158 Ryan Garko - Jay
159 Eric Gagne - Wilson
160 A.J. Burnett - Ebner
Notes: Unremarkable round to me. I like Billingsley’s upside here and Burnett is a safe and solid pick that could have gone several rounds earlier.
Jay’s Pick: I would have taken Burnett, but as I just mentioned, I needed batters. Ryan Garko is a batter. That’s basically what I was doing there. Picking a guy who was a batter. I hope everyone’s high hopes for Garko come true. Hit 30 HR’s you jerk. I really like the McGowan pick too.
Round 17
161 George Sherrill - Ebner
162 Pat Neshek - Wilson
163 Juan Pierre - Jay
164 John Maine - Bri
165 Geovany Soto - Ryan
166 Carlos Delgado - Evan
167 Orlando Cabrera - Jeff
168 Pedro Martinez - Jon
169 Jeremy Accardo - Paul
170 Tim Hudson – Emery
Notes: Pedro is a good pick, I think he’ll be fine and seems to be healthy enough. I don’t understand Orlando Cabrera, I think he probably could pretty safely reside as a free agent. Delgado has enough upside that I think he was a good pick here. Low upside hitters I think have no business being taken at this point in the draft.
Jay’s Pick: Fuck Juan Pierre. I hope the Dodgers are as dumb as they seem to be.
Round 18
171 Aubrey Huff - Emery
172 Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Paul
173 Oliver Perez - Jon
174 Ian Snell - Jeff
175 Clay Buchholz - Evan
176 Kelvim Escobar - Ryan
177 Yunel Escobar - Bri
178 Willy Taveras - Jay
179 Jeremy Bonderman - Wilson
180 Michael Cuddyer – Ebner
Notes: I think Huff’s got some upside, certainly no worse a pick than Cuddyer (who’s somehow wildly overrated). I love Ian Snell, and I too am worried that you could pull the same trick with Snell you did with Bedard last year. I would have taken Buchholz instead though.
Jay’s Pick: Huff might have upside, but he wasn’t getting drafted, so no need to here. Salty’s probably back down, but he’ll be back up, and be fine at C. A lot of potential heart breaking pitchers here. Buchholz could be amazing. If Willy Taveras steals more than 30 bases for me, I got what I wanted.
Round 19
181 Joaquin Benoit - Ebner
182 Kerry Wood - Wilson
183 Adam LaRoche - Jay
184 Adam Jones - Bri
185 Justin Upton - Ryan
186 Tony Pena - Evan
187 Troy Percival - Jeff
188 Adam Wainwright - Jon
189 Brian Wilson - Paul
190 Brandon Lyon - Emery
Notes: Adam Jones and Justin Upton are good picks here. I think both of them will probably under-perform their PECOTA forecasts, but I think they’ll both be solid nevertheless. LaRoche is good but brings a heavy burden with 131Ks. He needs to rake to be worth it, but I think he will.
Jay’s Pick: Yeah, I have Laroche and Garko. If one of them breaks out I’ll be happy. LaRoche is also a batter. Joaquin Benoit was the odd pick here I thought. Well, that and the same guy who has Gagne taking Wood. This was a dull round except for Jones and Upton, which are fine, but I don’t think either will kick ass this year. Could be wrong. Fine upside.
Round 20
191 Ken Griffey Jr. - Emery
192 Phil Hughes - Paul
193 Bob Howry - Jon
194 Ivan Rodriguez - Jeff
195 Brad Penny - Evan
196 Ted Lilly - Ryan
197 Rich Harden - Bri
198 Scot Shields - Jay
199 Lastings Milledge - Wilson
200 C.J. Wilson - Ebner
Notes: Rich Harden does indeed look quite brilliant today after he threw 6 IP and 9 Ks. I also think Brad Penny is underrated (I realize that it’s hard to compute those words in that order). Scot Shields is overrated at this point in his career, but since Jay now has two shields on his team that’s a +2 to armor class.
Jay’s Pick: Yeah Junior. Milledge is a good pick. I was looking at Harden as well. That could be really really awesome. I have no idea why Ryan thinks Ted Lilly is his best pick in the draft. It’s Ted Lilly. He’s pretty good. About a 20th rounder I’d say. Now, Scot Shields on the other hand…Yeah, I wanted holds and I remembered his name. It will likely prove a mistake.
Round 21
201 Billy Butler - Ebner
202 Nick Johnson - Wilson
203 Frank Thomas - Jay
204 Edgar Renteria - Bri
205 Kevin Kouzmanoff - Ryan
206 J.J. Hardy - Evan
207 Joe Blanton - Jeff
208 Jeff Kent - Jon
209 Akinori Iwamura - Paul
210 Pat Burrell - Emery
Notes: Oh Billy Butler, why do I have such problems obtaining you in leagues? Next year, I suppose, though I will probably have to draft you in the 3rd round. Jeff Kent going at pick 208, immediately before the incredibly inferior Akinori Iwamura is rather mindblowing. Jeff Kent may be old, but he’s still an asshole. Also, he can still hit a baseball rather well. Emery continues to punt Ks, which shows real guts.
Also, if Joe Blanton has a Dan Haren year, I swear to god I will uninstall excel, burn my statistics textbooks, and consult an African witch doctor on any future analytical problem.
Jay’s Pick: Frank Thomas is an old guy with a pretty good OPS that hits HR’s and RBI’s. Karabell would be proud. Yeah,
Round 22
211 Dontrelle Willis - Emery
212 Brian Fuentes - Paul
213 Gary Matthews Jr. - Jon
214 Derrick Turnbow - Jeff
215 Derek Lowe - Evan
216 Kazuo Fukumori - Ryan
217 Colby Rasmus - Bri
218 Hank Blalock - Jay
219 Jered Weaver - Wilson
220 Randy Johnson - Ebner
Notes: Agreed, boring round. I like Randy Johnson and I’m kind of angry I didn’t take him, but Weaver is the safer pick. Matthews Jr. belongs on the free agent wire. Blalock could bounce back, I suppose.
Jay’s Pick: I like the Fuentes pick a lot, and the Randy Johnson. Hank Blalock could turn it around,
Round 23
221 Conor Jackson - Ebner
222 Jay Bruce -
223 Joey Votto - Jay
224 Andy Pettitte - Bri
225 Randy Winn - Ryan
226 J.D. Drew - Evan
227 Josh Willingham - Jeff
228 Ryan Spilborghs - Jon
229 Zack Greinke - Paul
230 Elijah Dukes – Emery
Notes: Greinke sat around for far too long. He’s going to be very good. Everyone else in this round will be a free agent at some point this season.
Jay’s Pick: Fuck Dusty Baker. At the time I thought Votto would probably play. Can’t believe I didn’t take Greinke. Hell, even Dukes.
Round 24
231 Joel Zumaya - Emery
232 Austin Kearns - Paul
233 Dmitri Young - Jon
234 Joe Borowski - Jeff
235 Chien Ming Wang - Evan
236 Mark Teahen - Ryan
237 Russ Springer - Bri
238 Rick Ankiel - Jay
239 Tom Gorzelanny - Wilson
240 Manny Delcarmen - Ebner
Notes: Ankiel is a very good pick here. I agree with exactly what was written on this below. Wang is the only other guy here I believe will remain owned the whole year. Teahen has some upside, I suppose, but guys like
Jay’s Pick: Yeah, Ankiel was sweet. Better than Blalock, of course. I think
Round 25
241 Matt Lindstrom - Ebner
242 Stephen Drew - Wilson
243 Ryan Theriot - Jay
244 Bengie Molina - Bri
245 Felipe Lopez - Ryan
246 Henry Owens - Evan
247 Todd Jones - Jeff
248 Jeremy Guthrie - Jon
249 Aaron Hill - Paul
250 Ryan Freel – Emery
Notes: Aaron Hill was a good pick, not sure why I passed on him. Todd Jones will probably get some saves before finally losing the job.
Jay’s Pick: I picked a guy that will probably steal bases…for waivers, in like 3 weeks.